Launchpadders have been on a Decision Making Quest, where through discussions, simulations and hands-on activities we’ve explored the best processes, recipes and algorithms for making decisions.

At the simplest end of the spectrum is the study of probability, where the outcome repeated, independent probabilistic decisions can be modeled mathematically.  Thursday night, we put the equations to the test with a Casino Night.

Launchpadders studied probability and the odds of different games of chance.  Then LPers  estimated the likely profits given the number of guests who would attend, each who would be given 20 chips and invited to play games for one hour and forty-five minutes.

Based on the estimates, LPers bid Eagle Bucks for the right to host a table of Craps, Blackjack; Roulette; Baccarat or Slot Machines, with the profits (or losses) from each table accruing to the owner.

After a night of spirited play, followed by an auction for prizes —  with its own set of decision-making lessons — Launchpadders learned at least one important lesson:

Play long enough, and the house always wins!

If nothing else, LPers learned never to wager precious time and hard earned money against hopeless odds, because in this case, the past history of losers in the City of Dreams will  determine  the future of those who foolishly tempt fate again.