Terrorists are threatening to attack the City of Austin.  You have to decide whether or not to evacuate the city.  Luckily, you have intercepted a coded message.  If you only you can decipher the code, you have a chance to save the day.

You decipher the code by guessing at the frequency of various letters, and where they occur.  This leads you to a clue, and one chance to draw from a collection of beads – the frequency of blue beads equals the probability of an attack.

Then you realize, the more groups who crack the code, the more draws of the beads, the better probability distribution you can create, the better the odds that you make the correct decision.  But the only way you can help is by asking A/B questions – no direct hints.

Welcome to another day at Acton Academy, preparing the Eagles with the tools to answer:  Does the Past Determine the Future?

PS.  Our Eagles determined that the odds were against an attack – and they were right (this time.)